Your Daily Trading Strategy Check-in - Deriv Broker April 24, 2025 Newsletter
Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Trading Central! These are starting points for your research to identify opportunities that make sense for you.
GBP/USD Intraday: key resistance at 1.3340. Pivot: 1.3340 Our preference: Short positions below 1.3340 with targets at 1.3240 & 1.3200 in extension. Alternative scenario: Above 1.3340, look for further upside with 1.3390 & 1.3420 as targets. Comment: As long as 1.3340 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
EUR/USD Intraday: key resistance at 1.1440.
Pivot:
1.1440
Our preference:
Short positions below 1.1440 with targets at 1.1315 & 1.1265 in extension.
Alternative scenario:
Above 1.1440, look for further upside with 1.1490 & 1.1545 as targets.
Comment:
As long as 1.1440 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
USD/CHF Intraday: intraday support around 0.8230.
Pivot:
0.8230
Our preference:
Long positions above 0.8230 with targets at 0.8340 & 0.8385 in extension.
Alternative scenario:
Below 0.8230, look for further downside with 0.8185 & 0.8140 as targets.
Comment:
The RSI lacks downward momentum.
Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex) (M5) Intraday: intraday support around 4959.00.
Pivot:
4959.00
Our preference:
Long positions above 4959.00 with targets at 5067.00 & 5115.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario:
Below 4959.00, look for further downside with 4929.00 & 4900.00 as targets.
Comment:
Even though a continuation of the consolidation cannot be ruled out, its extent should be limited.
Gold Intraday: intraday support around 3305.00.
Pivot:
3305.00
Our preference:
Long positions above 3305.00 with targets at 3348.00 & 3367.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario:
Below 3305.00, look for further downside with 3278.00 & 3260.00 as targets.
Comment:
The RSI has just landed in its neutrality area at 50% and is turning up.
The key support and resistance levels ahead for BTC/USD are as follows:
•Third Key resistance level of BTC/USD: 98800
• Second Key resistance level of BTC/USD: 96300
• First key resistance level of BTC/USD: 94700
• First key support level of BTC/USD: 91800
• Second Key support level of BTC/USD: 88600
•Third Key support level of BTC/USD: 86000
Review of the Bitcoin Status as of 2025.04.24
As mentioned in the previous analysis of the Bitcoin chart dated 2025.04.15, this market leader had the potential for upward movement, which ultimately occurred, and buyers initiated a good upward rally.
While stock indices are bearish, the price surge and optimism for an increase in the crypto market indicate a degree of independence. Positive fundamental factors, such as hope in the trade war with China, have also influenced the rise in prices.
Currently, in longer time frames such as monthly and weekly, the price has moved somewhat away from a deeper correction pattern, and with the increase and stabilization of prices above the key level of 88600 dollars, the situation has become more favorable for an upward movement.
If the upward formation is maintained, the next target for buyers is the resistance level of 96300 dollars, which initially requires overcoming the resistance peak of 94700 dollars.
From a technical perspective, in a bearish scenario, if the price breaks below the key level of 88600 dollars, optimism for an upward movement will diminish, and the potential for the price to reach the support level of 82000 dollars will strengthen.
Your Daily Trading Strategy Check-in - Deriv Broker April 23, 2025 Newsletter
Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Trading Central! These are starting points for your research to identify opportunities that make sense for you.
Your Daily Trading Strategy Check-in - Deriv Broker April 22, 2025 Newsletter
Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Trading Central! These are starting points for your research to identify opportunities that make sense for you.
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Your Daily Trading Strategy Check-in - Deriv Broker April 21, 2025 Newsletter
Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Trading Central! These are starting points for your research to identify opportunities that make sense for you.
Markets remain fragile as stagflation risk rises and the FED stays on the sidelines. Here's what we're watching this week:
What’s happened
Last Week: We saw some of the weaker 'soft' data begin to spill over into the 'harder' data, with Philly Fed employment being lower and New Orders and the Manufacturing Index down substantially. Alongside this, the Prices Paid were up significantly. Therefore, we have a very negative dynamic beginning to play out: an economic slowdown with rising prices and stagflation. Many assets, particularly risk assets, perform poorly in this environment.
Big Picture: Risk assets will likely decline as the FED remains on pause. We cannot cut rates while we're seeing inflation expectations rise due to the tariffs, and the FED cannot cut rates to increase inflation expectations. They'll only do so when the economic data has a material downturn. This might look something like a negative Non-Farm Payrolls number, for instance.
What’s next Markets are calm. But behind the scenes, a perfect storm of policy paralysis and rising inflation may already set the next leg down.
Keep reading to see what assets we’re watching—and why.
What’s coming next week
Throughout the week, there isn't any significant data out, so the markets, from a macro data point of view, the hotter weeks' focus will be on any new rhetoric out of the administration and any progress on trade deals. From a macro data point of view, the hotter weeks are the first two weeks of May.
Wild Card: Has the Trump administration made any realistic progress on whether they can legally remove Chairman Powell from the FED? Most likely, this won't be able to happen. But, if the administration finds a way (a legal way) in which they can remove Chairman Powell, markets would likely puke lower on the announcement of this.
Levels we’re watching.
- BTC: BTC is in the middle of the range here, with $82k as the key support and $88k as a key horizontal resistance. If $82k breaks, we're looking at the $65k to $74k zone to accumulate. If $88k breaks to the upside, we will reassess. - Setup: We'll remain patient until BTC breaks its range. We expect that it'll be to the downside. Regarding longer-term accumulation levels, we're eyeing the $65k to $74k levels as a zone where we'll get aggressive with our buys. We'll consider small ads from $74k to $78k, but our central buying size will be between $65k and $74k.
In the short term, BTC's rally can continue, but we feel that any upside is capped here, and therefore, price pulling back is the more likely outcome over the next week. We're ultimately remaining patient here as the setup for risk assets isn't favourable while the FED remains on pause and there's substantial uncertainty around the Trump administration's policies. However, these current headwinds will eventually become tailwinds: clarity around trade policy and a Fed that can cut rates due to a slowdown. This means lower prices in the short term, but we'll be able to buy up. Then, the tailwinds mentioned above in the later part of this year and 2026 will support our positions.
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