Review of the EUR/USD Outlook – Dated August 28, 2025
The EUR/USD pair has exhibited bearish tendencies since the beginning of July, failing to secure further upward momentum.
In longer-term timeframes such as the weekly chart, the price remains relatively overbought. The formation of recent peaks, which have been unable to surpass the previous highs, indicates a partial retreat of buyers.
From a fundamental perspective, the U.S. dollar is in a challenging position, and recovery efforts do not appear to be assured. In this regard, the lack of alignment between former President Trump and the Federal Reserve has become more apparent, leading to a partial weakening of the dollar’s strength.
On shorter-term timeframes, such as the daily chart, the price has been halted at a descending trendline formed by two resistance points, preventing further upward movement, and is currently in decline.
Should prices stabilize below the 1.15800 support level (which, under current conditions, serves as the most critical barrier to further downside), bearish sentiment is likely to intensify, giving the pair potential to decline further toward the 1.15000 support level, and in a more severe scenario, down to 1.14500.
Conversely, in the bullish scenario, the first signal would emerge if the daily candle high of August 26 is broken.
Following that, buyers may attempt to breach the descending trendline—a favorable indication of a potential bullish reversal. In this case, the following resistance levels for the price would be 1.17300 and 1.18000.
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Your Daily Trading Strategy Check-in - Deriv Broker August 26, 2025 Newsletter
Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Trading Central! These are starting points for your own research to identify opportunities that make sense for you.
GBP/USD Intraday: consolidation. Pivot: 1.3490 Our preference: Short positions below 1.3490 with targets at 1.3420 & 1.3390 in extension. Alternative scenario: Above 1.3490 look for further upside with 1.3520 & 1.3545 as targets. Comment: As long as 1.3490 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
EUR/USD Intraday: consolidation.
Pivot:
1.1670
Our preference:
Short positions below 1.1670 with targets at 1.1580 & 1.1540 in extension.
Alternative scenario:
Above 1.1670 look for further upside with 1.1705 & 1.1740 as targets.
Comment:
As long as 1.1670 is resistance, look for choppy price action with a bearish bias.
USD/CHF Intraday: under pressure.
Pivot:
0.8075
Our preference:
Short positions below 0.8075 with targets at 0.8025 & 0.8015 in extension.
Alternative scenario:
Above 0.8075 look for further upside with 0.8100 & 0.8130 as targets.
Comment:
As long as 0.8075 is resistance, expect a return to 0.8025.
Euro Stoxx 50 (Eurex) (U5) Intraday: the downside prevails.
Pivot:
5449.00
Our preference:
Short positions below 5449.00 with targets at 5384.00 & 5354.00 in extension.
Alternative scenario:
Above 5449.00 look for further upside with 5474.00 & 5490.00 as targets.
Comment:
The RSI is bearish and calls for further decline.
Your Daily Trading Strategy Check-in - Deriv Broker August 25, 2025 Newsletter
Here are today's directional views from the global research desks of Trading Central! These are starting points for your own research to identify opportunities that make sense for you.
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Choose a learning method that suits your learning style: People learn in different ways, and it’s essential to choose a learning method that suits your learning style. If you prefer visual learning, video tutorials or live webinars may be the best option for you. If you choose to read and digest information at your own pace, eBooks or online courses may be more suitable.
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In conclusion, learning binary option trading is not an overnight process, and it requires a lot of effort and dedication. By researching and analyzing the available resources, considering the credibility of the source, choosing a learning method that suits your learning style, starting with a demo account, learning from experienced traders, and developing a trading strategy, you can set yourself up for success in the world of binary option trading.
Remember to take things slow, and don’t rush into trading with real money until you’re confident in your skills and understanding of the market.
As highlighted in the previous Bitcoin analysis dated August 13, 2025, there was potential for an upward move in the chart — a scenario that eventually materialized, with the price climbing close to the $125,000 resistance level.
On higher timeframes such as the monthly and weekly charts, the trend still appears bullish. However, given the current structure of the weekly chart, excessive optimism regarding the continuation of the uptrend could be risky.
Bitcoin’s failure to surpass the July 14th peak, combined with the formation of a shooting star candlestick pattern and the presence of a negative divergence with the RSI, has triggered the first warning sign that the market may be at a local top. For now, however, this serves only as a cautionary signal to temper overly bullish sentiment among buyers.
Bitcoin and Fundamental Factors
From a fundamental perspective, the digital asset industry remains in a strong position. Growing optimism, increased investment flows, and higher trading volumes collectively point to a favorable market environment. On the regulatory front, positive developments such as the implementation of a clear legal framework for stablecoin issuers in Hong Kong have further strengthened market confidence.
Bitcoin’s Ambiguous Outlook and Possible Scenarios Ahead
During its recent decline, Bitcoin approached the key support level of $112,000, a zone where some analysts anticipate a potential rebound. Should this support fail, however, the path for sustaining the broader uptrend becomes more challenging, and the price could enter a deeper corrective phase — effectively generating a bearish signal, which is also visible on the weekly chart. In this case, the most crucial support levels ahead of the price are initially at $108,500 and, in a more severe scenario, at $101,000.
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Bitcoin reached a new all-time high on Wednesday, 13 August 2025, of $124,000
Bitcoin reached a new all-time high on Wednesday of $124,000, which some experts attribute to spot bitcoin ETF purchases and fears of a weakening dollar. The next day, Bitcoin sold off sharply, down more than 5%, following news of “the latest U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) report, which showed wholesale prices running hotter than anticipated, and Bessent’s remarks only added to the downbeat sentiment.”
Despite the all-time high and the usualwave of bullishnews, bitcoin played second fiddle to Ethereum this week. In truth, that’s probably been the case for several weeks. Still, this time it felt like Ethereum dominated every podcast I listened to and filled nearly every conversation on Crypto Twitter (CT).
A major driver of Ethereum’s price appreciation is the treasury narrative. This week, SBET announced it expects to hold over $3 billion after a $400 million deal. Another driver is the institutional inflows via spot ether ETFs. This week was yet another banner week, with the second-biggest inflows ever.
With ETH nearly at an all-time high, ambitious price retargets have started to emerge. Tom Lee is predicting $10,000 by year’s end. Not to be outdone, Standard Chartered suggested ETH could reach $25,000 While searches for ‘bitcoin’ remain well below the previous cycle's peak, searches for Ethereum are just shy of the last cycle's peak.
Token Narratives co-host, the inestimable Graham Stone, maintained in this week’s episode that any significant price appreciation from here isn’t grounded in fundamentals, particularly when it comes to the revenue narrative. Following last week’s excellent talk about privacy, and this week’s relatively successful 51% attack on Monero, has me thinking Ethereum might deserve some decentralization premium.
Oh Monero! What initially seemed like a PR stunt from upstart blockchain Qubic, hinted at in an ominous X post on July 26, began with a whimper and ended with a bang. The attack was planned to span the month of August, but was called off after achieving a six and a seven-block reorg as well as producing empty blocks. Qubic has called off the month-long attack early, claiming they don’t want to destroy Monero because, as the biggest Monero miners, they’d lose money.
Graham noted a silver lining: the episode demonstrated the real-world game-theoretic financial counterforces to 51% attacks. Monero community members are trying to find silver linings, too, Xenu (Anti Moon Boy on YouTube) said in a great Monerotalk about the attack, that it was a much-needed wake-up call. To paraphrase: “If we can’t handle this shitty project’s attack, then we aren’t ready to handle state actors, or anyone serious.”
There was another big news story related to the fundamental crypto pillars of decentralization and privacy. Google, one half of the Apple-Google app store duopoly, clarified that a July 2025 policy update on the Play Store was mistakenly worded to imply a ban on self-custody crypto wallets, and confirmed such wallets will remain allowed without requiring government licensing or registration.
Google promptly fell more than crypto. The Giver on X pointed out that this could’ve been a significant moment between Apple and Google, acting similar to a wedge issue in politics. I think the market’s reaction was vital because it shows that even the most powerful companies in the world now must carefully consider their actions regarding crypto.
It’s also a curious coincidence that Solana Mobile’s Seeker phones began shipping recently. I got mine last week. When the Google news initially broke, my first thought was relief that I had a viable self-custody backup phone. My second thought was of Solana co-founder extolling the virtues of the Seeker, including a prescient segment about the duopoly and the importance of a crypto-friendly app store.
In the future, due to stablecoin growth. Yes, Ethereum sentiment is high amongst CT, but there are indications that retail is getting excited too. Take, for instance, the following Google Trend data comparing searches of Bitcoin and Ethereum.
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