November just erased $19K from Bitcoin… now what?

[Forum Admin]

Bitcoin’s $19K November Wipeout: Is the Real Pain Still Ahead?

 
The crypto market navigated a turbulent November close and a shaky start to December, marked by persistent bearish sentiment amid macroeconomic headwinds and high ETF outflows. 

Bitcoin (BTC) shed over $19,000 in November (its most considerable monthly dollar loss since May 2021) before dipping below $86,000 early this week, driven by leveraged liquidations totaling nearly $2 billion, China's renewed crypto ban, and MicroStrategy's slashed 2025 earnings forecast.
Ethereum (ETH) mirrored the downside, falling 6% to around $2,800, as did other prominent altcoins like Solana (SOL) and XRP.

Looking ahead, the Federal Reserve's end to quantitative tightening and potential December rate cuts may offer liquidity relief, but traders should remain cautious of further short-term capitulation amid a hawkish Bank of Japan mulling a new rate hike.
 

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Market Overview

Bitcoin Slumps on ETF Outflows and Macro Jitters

The most obvious sign of weakness in crypto markets this week was the very notable Bitcoin sell-off immediately after the weekly open. 

The first hourly candle saw BTC fall nearly 4%, likely catching many by surprise. 

Recent market volatility appears to stem from a confluence of tightening liquidity, shifting central bank expectations, and intensifying regulatory scrutiny. Global liquidity conditions now seem too constrained to meaningfully support asset prices, while recent comments from the Bank of Japan on potential policy normalization have further unsettled risk sentiment. At the same time, the unwinding of yen-carry trades is widely believed to be adding incremental selling pressure to Bitcoin. China has also reiterated its hardline stance on digital assets, signaling plans to escalate its crackdown on stablecoins.

Concerns around market structure and leverage are amplifying the cautious tone. Arthur Hayes has suggested that a roughly 30% drawdown in a combined gold-and-Bitcoin portfolio could theoretically erode Tether’s equity, raising renewed questions around USDT’s resilience. Meanwhile, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have recorded approximately $3.5 billion in net outflows—their largest monthly redemption since launching in January 2024. Broader risk markets are showing strain as well: equity valuations remain historically elevated, and MicroStrategy’s NAV has fallen to its lowest level since March 27, 2023, during the Silicon Valley Bank stress episode.
 

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Is Now a Good Time To Buy Bitcoin? One Analyst Argues, No

Historically, Bitcoin has entered into bullish phases only after it outperforms gold and equities. Trader Northstar recently illustrated this with two long-term ratio charts, arguing that, 
“...the time to buy is when Bitcoin stops being in a bear market versus gold and the stock market.”

His BTC/Gold analysis shows that each cycle features multi-year expansions (roughly 36 to 56 months) followed by long periods of underperformance. Importantly, Bitcoin’s ratio versus gold has now broken below a decade-long rising trendline, forming consistent lower highs and lower lows. In prior cycles, similar “bear market versus gold” phases lasted one to two years before a new base formed. This structural breakdown suggests Bitcoin remains weak compared to the world’s benchmark hard-money asset, signalling cautious capital rotation toward gold rather than BTC.

The BTC/Nasdaq chart tells the same story. Using the weekly Ichimoku Cloud and 50-week moving average, the ratio currently mirrors the 2021 setup that kicked off a prolonged period of Bitcoin underperformance. The ratio has rolled over from cloud resistance, slipped below the 50-week moving average, and begun forming another topping pattern. When Bitcoin lags high-momentum tech sectors, macro funds typically overweight equities instead, reducing crypto beta flows and weakening trend strength.

Taken together, these two relative charts show that Bitcoin is still in a confirmed relative downtrend. From a trading standpoint, accumulation typically becomes attractive only once BTC begins to regain strength against both gold and equities: specifically, when BTC/Gold forms a higher low and turns upward, and when BTC/Nasdaq reclaims the 50-week moving average and breaks back above the Ichimoku cloud with conviction.

Until those conditions appear, history suggests patience. Bitcoin’s primary bull cycles have always begun after it stops underperforming competing assets—not while it is still underperforming them.
 

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