Today, 11:19 AM
Is Bitcoin Starting to Decouple From Equities?
It’s been a week of mixed signals, sharp drawdowns, and rebounds. Oil swung from a session high somewhere near $119 down to roughly $81, before sharply recovering above $95 in the space of a few days. Bitcoin fell to $60,000 and then climbed back above $70,000, and equity markets slid to a new 2026 low, all while the situation in the Middle East continued to shift almost by the hour.
The question tension traders are sitting with right now is a familiar one: Is the worst priced in, or is this just a pause? Concerns about Strait of Hormuz transit have not gone away, but there are some signals of a potential diplomatic path that markets have been willing to sell fear and buy the dip, at least for now.
Equities haven't shared that optimism. The S&P 500 is still under meaningful pressure, but Bitcoin has quietly reclaimed ground in a way that a lot of people are starting to notice.
Two things matter most in the coming week. CPI lands on Wednesday, and with oil prices significantly higher than they were six weeks ago, any upside surprise there would make the Fed's job considerably harder. Then, on March 18, Powell has to say something meaningful in front of a market that genuinely does not know whether it's looking at an inflation shock or a demand slowdown. Neither answer is straightforward right now.