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EUR/USD Analysis (Dated June 17, 2026)
From a long-term perspective, EUR/USD has been moving within a range since mid-2025, with its main trading activity taking place between 1.19000 and 1.14100. Since last week, buyers have managed to form a bullish cycle, with the highest price recorded on the chart at 1.16219.
A Review of the Dollar’s Fundamental Outlook
Today’s Federal Reserve decision is important for the short-term direction of the U.S. dollar, as it marks the first policy meeting under Kevin Warsh’s chairmanship. The market is focused less on the interest rate itself and more on his tone, the policy statement, and the dot plot.
The prevailing expectation is that interest rates will remain unchanged within the 3.50% to 3.75% range. Therefore, the market’s main reaction could come from any shift in the Federal Reserve’s tone.
If the Fed removes its previous bias toward rate cuts and the dot plot no longer signals any rate cuts for the current year, the message of the meeting would be interpreted as more hawkish.
Inflation risks, including energy price volatility, are likely to push Warsh toward a cautious, data-dependent tone, with a preference for maintaining tight monetary policy. Such a message, if more hawkish than the market currently expects, could support both the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields. However, a positive impact on the dollar is not guaranteed, as part of this scenario may already be priced in.
On the other hand, since the European Central Bank also maintains a more hawkish tone, the EUR/USD outlook is likely to remain volatile and two-directional.
EUR/USD and the Lack of a Clear Direction
On higher timeframes, such as the weekly chart, EUR/USD is trading within a range between the resistance level at 1.18000 and the support level at 1.15000. Under current conditions, the price is moving upward from the 1.15000 support area.
On shorter timeframes, such as the daily chart, the price has shown the possibility of further upside after breaking the descending trendline formed by three price peaks. Price action around this breakout should be monitored carefully.
Given the current conditions, as long as the 1.15000 support level remains intact, the price has the potential to rise toward the 1.16500 resistance level, and in a stronger scenario, toward 1.17700.
In the opposite, bearish scenario, if the 1.15770 support level is broken, the probability of further upside will weaken. Sellers may then target 1.15600, and in a stronger bearish move, 1.15450.
From a long-term perspective, EUR/USD has been moving within a range since mid-2025, with its main trading activity taking place between 1.19000 and 1.14100. Since last week, buyers have managed to form a bullish cycle, with the highest price recorded on the chart at 1.16219.
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A Review of the Dollar’s Fundamental Outlook
Today’s Federal Reserve decision is important for the short-term direction of the U.S. dollar, as it marks the first policy meeting under Kevin Warsh’s chairmanship. The market is focused less on the interest rate itself and more on his tone, the policy statement, and the dot plot.
The prevailing expectation is that interest rates will remain unchanged within the 3.50% to 3.75% range. Therefore, the market’s main reaction could come from any shift in the Federal Reserve’s tone.
If the Fed removes its previous bias toward rate cuts and the dot plot no longer signals any rate cuts for the current year, the message of the meeting would be interpreted as more hawkish.
Inflation risks, including energy price volatility, are likely to push Warsh toward a cautious, data-dependent tone, with a preference for maintaining tight monetary policy. Such a message, if more hawkish than the market currently expects, could support both the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields. However, a positive impact on the dollar is not guaranteed, as part of this scenario may already be priced in.
On the other hand, since the European Central Bank also maintains a more hawkish tone, the EUR/USD outlook is likely to remain volatile and two-directional.
EUR/USD and the Lack of a Clear Direction
On higher timeframes, such as the weekly chart, EUR/USD is trading within a range between the resistance level at 1.18000 and the support level at 1.15000. Under current conditions, the price is moving upward from the 1.15000 support area.
On shorter timeframes, such as the daily chart, the price has shown the possibility of further upside after breaking the descending trendline formed by three price peaks. Price action around this breakout should be monitored carefully.
Given the current conditions, as long as the 1.15000 support level remains intact, the price has the potential to rise toward the 1.16500 resistance level, and in a stronger scenario, toward 1.17700.
In the opposite, bearish scenario, if the 1.15770 support level is broken, the probability of further upside will weaken. Sellers may then target 1.15600, and in a stronger bearish move, 1.15450.