Review of the EUR/USD Situation – Dated 2025.11.12

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Review of the EUR/USD Situation – Dated 2025.11.12

 

As mentioned in the previous EUR/USD analysis dated 2025.10.29, based on both fundamental and technical indicators, there was potential for a price decline, which ultimately materialized.

From a fundamental perspective, Forex traders are currently hopeful that the U.S. government shutdown will soon come to an end. As a result, investors are awaiting the release of key economic data, which is expected to be published once the shutdown concludes.

Meanwhile, in Europe, the continent's largest economy — Germany — has drawn significant attention with its ambitious move to substantially increase general and public spending aimed at strengthening its defense structure and infrastructure. Escalating geopolitical tensions and related concerns have compelled Germany to pursue an extensive rebuilding of both its defensive capabilities and its economic growth.

In the long-term outlook, observed through weekly and monthly timeframes, price action has been capped by two major technical patterns — a downward trendline and the resistance edge of an ascending channel. Only if the price stabilizes above the 1.17200 resistance level will the potential for breaking through these two formations increase.

During the recent downward move, the price halted at the key level of 1.15000, forming a pin bar, indicating that sellers have partially failed to push the market further down. As long as this pin bar remains valid, price retains the potential for further upward movement toward the resistance levels of 1.16600 and, in a stronger scenario, up to 1.17200.

In the shorter-term outlooks, such as the daily and 4-hour timeframes, price has shown a bullish tendency over the past few days. It has successfully broken a downward trendline formed by four visible resistance points on the daily chart. With this trendline broken and R turning into S, aggressive buyers are now active in the market.

In the bearish scenario, the first warning signal will appear if the 1.15400 support level is broken, which could open the way for further declines toward the key levels of 1.15000 and, in a stronger bearish extension, 1.14500.

  

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