EUR/USD Analysis for September 30, 2025

[Forum Admin]

EUR/USD Analysis for September 30, 2025

 

 

Over the past several weeks, the EUR/USD pair has exhibited a neutral and directionless trend, indicating significant indecision among traders regarding the formation of a clear market direction.

 

From a fundamental perspective, the probability of a US government shutdown has increased in recent days, fostering greater caution among market participants. Should a shutdown occur, economic data releases would be postponed, a scenario that could provide a mild tailwind for EUR/USD.

 

Furthermore, declining Treasury yields—driven by safe-haven demand for bonds and softer expectations for Federal Reserve policy—coupled with a rise in gold as a safe-haven asset, are exerting additional downward pressure on the US dollar. On longer-term timeframes, such as the weekly chart, the overall trend is still interpreted as bullish; however, the upward momentum shows signs of weakening due to the price entering relatively overbought territory and the formation of candlestick patterns like the Spinning Top and Shooting Star.

 

Analysing the price action between the low of 0.95384 and the high of 1.19175, a harmonic AB=CD pattern appears to be forming, featuring 61.8/161.8 Fibonacci ratios, which suggests the potential for a price ceiling to form in this vicinity. In a bearish scenario, as long as the resistance zone of 1.19175-1.18700 holds, downward pressure may intensify. This outlook is supported by the aforementioned harmonic pattern, the relatively overbought conditions, and the recently formed candlestick formations.

 

Conversely, in the bullish scenario, the price has successfully broken a descending trendline and is currently positioned above the 21-period moving average. Overall, as long as the price remains above the key level of 1.16000, bullish sentiment is likely to persist among buyers, who will be targeting the resistance levels of 1.18100 and, in a more extended move, 1.18700 to achieve their objectives.
 

Recommended Deriv Forex Broker - Regulated Broker Online Since 1999